Abstract Details

Title Environmental Risk Factors for Multiple Sclerosis in Women Identified in Population-Based Study Using LASSO Regression

Topic MS and Related Diseases

Presentation(s) P05 - (-)

Poster/Presentation
Number 138

Objective

Background BACKGROUND: The incidence of MS has increased in the past several decades, particularly in women; this increase is not explained by known genetic or environmental MS risk factors. There is an urgent need to evaluate other candidate environmental risk factors for MS.

Design/Methods DESIGN/METHODS: LASSO regression was used to identify a subset of environmental exposures with potential relevance to disease among women in a large population-based MS case-control study conducted in the Kaiser Permanente Northern California membership. Variables with non-zero coefficients were carried forward to unmatched and matched case-control logistic or conditional logistic regression analyses, adjusted for known environmental risk factors (vitamin D status, mononucleosis history, cigarette smoking), socioeconomic status and [in unmatched analyses] age. We also determined if known genetic risk factors influenced the results.

Results RESULTS: Of twelve environmental exposures studied, six had non-zero coefficients in LASSO regression. Reptile exposure was associated with reduced MS odds in unmatched and matched (OR=0.69, 95% CI [0.51, 0.92], p=0.013) analyses, as was small pet exposure (OR=0.68, 95% CI [0.52, 0.89], p=0.005) in matched analyses. The results were similar when genetic factors were included. In matched analyses, hair permanent solution exposure prior to disease onset was associated with increased MS odds (OR=1.35, 95% CI [1.03, 1.77], p=0.032), with similar results after including genetic factors.

Conclusions CONCLUSIONS: Among women in this large cohort study, exposure to reptiles or small pets was associated with reduced MS odds, while exposure to hair permanent solution was associated with increased odds thereof. The study demonstrates the successful application of LASSO to identify environmental exposures with reduced penalty for multiple statistical testing. Further investigation is warranted to determine if exposure modification reduces MS risk.

Authors/Disclosures
Ellen M. Mowry, MD, FAAN (Johns Hopkins University) PRESENTER	Dr. Mowry has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving on a Scientific Advisory or Data Safety Monitoring board for Octave. Dr. Mowry has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving on a Scientific Advisory or Data Safety Monitoring board for SetPoint. The institution of Dr. Mowry has received research support from Genentech/Roche. The institution of Dr. Mowry has received research support from Biogen. Dr. Mowry has received publishing royalties from a publication relating to health care.
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
Keith R. Edwards, MD, FAAN (MS Center of Northeastern New York)	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
Allan L. Bernstein, MD	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file

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