Abstract Details

Title Predictors of 12 Month Confirmed Disability Progression after Onset of Clinically Isolated Syndrome (CIS) Suggestive of Multiple Sclerosis

Topic MS and Related Diseases

Presentation(s) P04 - (-)

Poster/Presentation
Number 122

Objective

Background BACKGROUND: The first 12-month confirmed EDSS disability progression event after CIS onset likely reflects persistent MS-related disability. Predictors of long-term disability progression after CIS are not well characterised in real world datasets, and treatment effects are uncertain.

Design/Methods DESIGN/METHODS: The MS Base Incident Study (MSBasis) is an ongoing observational prospective cohort study of CIS, and enrols patients from 59 MS centres worldwide. Data were aggregated in MSBase, including patient profile, date of CIS, EDSS, and cerebral MRI. Follow-up data included relapses, treatment changes and EDSS. Predictors for time to 12-month 1 EDSS step (1.5 EDSS steps for baseline EDSS 0, 0.5 for baseline EDSS 6-6.5) confirmed progression were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results RESULTS: Of 3413 CIS patients, 1713 had complete evaluable datasets including onset MRI (median follow-up 3.3 years). Of these, 255 had a first 12 month sustained disability progression and 1092 (63%) were exposed to at least one MS medication (DMT). Predictors of time to progression in multivariable analysis were adjusted for clinic location and included an EDSS >0 (for EDSS 1-2.5 HR 2.83, p<0.001 and for EDSS 3+, HR 3.9, p<0.001), and exposure to DMT was protective (HR for weekly IM interferon beta (IFB) 1a was 0.36; for alt day IFB 1b 8 million units thrice weekly 0.39; for thrice weekly IFB 1a 44mcg 0.29 and for daily glatiramer acetate 0.25; all p<0.001; compared to no treatment HR=1). No MRI or CSF findings were independent predictors.

Conclusions CONCLUSIONS: The MSBasis study has identified independent predictors of first 12 month disability progression, including a strong protective effect of beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate.

Authors/Disclosures
Helmut Butzkueven, MD, MBBS PRESENTER	Dr. Butzkueven has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Oxford Health Policy Forum. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Biogen. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Merck. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving as a Consultant for Novartis. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving as a Consultant for Roche. Dr. Butzkueven has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as an officer or member of the Board of Directors for MSBase . The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received research support from NHMRC. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received research support from Biogen. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received research support from Roche. The institution of Dr. Butzkueven has received research support from Novartis.
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
Timothy Spelman	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file

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