Abstract Details

Title Risk estimation of Amyloid Beta positivity on PET with Cognitive, CSF Biomarkers, volumetric MRI, APOE, and Demographic information.

Topic Aging, Dementia, and Behavioral Neurology

Presentation(s) P3 - Poster Session 3 (12:00 PM-1:00 PM)

Poster/Presentation
Number 10-007

Objective

To determine the predictive value of neuropsychological tests, volumetric MRI, and CSF markers in various combinations to identify individuals with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) who are Amyloid beta positive (Abeta+) based on PET imaging.

Background In Alzheimer’s disease (AD) secondary prevention trials, persons with aMCI are often screened with amyloid PET scans to identify Abeta+ individuals as a prelude to randomization. While PET imaging is useful in identifying individuals with MCI who will develop AD, <20% of screened patients are eligible for randomization based on clinical criteria and amyloid positivity, increasing trial timelines, costs, and operational complexity.

Design/Methods

A total of 369 participants with amnestic MCI (aMCI) from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort were selected for this study. Using a split-half approach, ensemble linear discriminant machine learning models were trained in one half of the sample then validated in the other half to predict Abeta status (based on the gold standard of PET imaging). All models included demographic variables and ApOE4 status, adding the following predictors one at time and in combination: neuropsychological tests (NP), MRI volumetrics, and CSF biomarkers.

Results The baseline prevalence of Abeta+ was 56% in the whole sample. In the validation sample, the models that included NP and MRI measures separately showed an area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) of 0.74 and 0.72, respectively. However, using NP and MRI measures jointly in the model did not improve prediction. The models including CSF biomarkers, significantly outperformed other models with AUCs between 0.89 to 0.92.

Conclusions

Machine learning predictive models can be effectively used to identify persons with aMCI likely to be amyloid positive on a subsequent PET scan. Such methods can be used to decrease number of participants that need to undergo amyloid PET study for enrollment in clinical trials.

Authors/Disclosures
Ali Ezzati, MD (University of California, Irvine) PRESENTER	The institution of Dr. Ezzati has received research support from NIA. The institution of Dr. Ezzati has received research support from Alzheimer's Association. The institution of Dr. Ezzati has received research support from Cure Alzheimer's Fund.
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
Irfan Qureshi, MD (Biohaven Pharmaceuticals)	Dr. Qureshi has received personal compensation for serving as an employee of Biohaven. Dr. Qureshi has stock in Biohaven Pharmaceuticals.
Andrea R. Zammit, PhD (Albert Einstein College of Medicine)	Dr. Zammit has nothing to disclose.
	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
Charles B. Hall, PhD	No disclosure on file
	No disclosure on file
Richard B. Lipton, MD, FAAN (Albert Einstein College of Medicine)	Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Allergan/Abbvie. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Amgen. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Biohaven. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $50,000-$99,999 for serving as a Consultant for Eli Lilly. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Lundbeck. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving as a Consultant for GlaxoSmithKline. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Teva. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Vedanta. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Merck. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Grifols. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving as a Consultant for Pfizer. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving as a Consultant for Axon. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving as a Consultant for Satsuma. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Genentech. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Cool Tech. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for BDSI. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Linpharma. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving as a Consultant for Axsome. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Clexio. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $500-$4,999 for serving as a Consultant for Shiratronics. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $5,000-$9,999 for serving on a Scientific Advisory or Data Safety Monitoring board for Allergan/Abbvie. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving on a Scientific Advisory or Data Safety Monitoring board for Biohaven. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving on a Scientific Advisory or Data Safety Monitoring board for Eli Lilly. Dr. Lipton has received personal compensation in the range of $10,000-$49,999 for serving on a Scientific Advisory or Data Safety Monitoring board for Lundbeck. Dr. Lipton has or had stock in Biohaven.Dr. Lipton has or had stock in Manistee.Dr. Lipton has or had stock in Axon.Dr. Lipton has or had stock in CoolTech. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Teva. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Amgen. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Allergan/Abbvie. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Gammacore. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Axsome. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Charleston Labs. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Eli Lilly. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Satsuma. The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from NIH . The institution of Dr. Lipton has received research support from Veterans Administration. Dr. Lipton has received publishing royalties from a publication relating to health care.

��ɫ��

��ɫ��