This study aims to forecast the fatal and non-fatal burden of brain disorders globally.

Brain disorders, inclusive of mental health disorders, neurological disorders, and cerebrovascular diseases such as depression, dementia, and stroke, accounted for over 15% of global health loss in 2021, expressed as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), surpassing cancer and cardiovascular disease. Over the past 30 years, there has been a 65% increase in prevalent brain disorders, increasing from around 2.4 billion in 1990 to 4 billion in 2021. The associated burden is expected to increase in coming years, creating new challenges for health systems, employers, patients, and families. 

We utilized the modelling framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to forecast the global burden of brain disorders, in aggregate, to the year 2050. These forecasts take into account future projections of population size and composition, as well as future projections of risk exposures. 

We project that there will be 4.9 billion cases of brain disorders by 2050, representing a 22% increase from 2021 estimates. Additionally, the all-age DALY rate of brain disorders is expected to rise markedly by 10% globally from 5,139 DALYs per 100,000 in 2021 to 5,666 DALYs per 100,000 in 2050. The main brain health conditions contributing to this predicted increase in prevalence and DALYs are headaches, Alzheimer’s disease, depressive and anxiety disorders, and strokes.

Our estimates underscore the substantial burden of brain health disorders, a burden projected to intensify if current trends persist. This escalating prevalence, fueled by population growth and population aging, will pose significant future challenges for global health, families, workplaces, and healthcare systems.