Abstract Details

Title Trends, Disparities, and Forecasting of Transient Ischemic Attack-related Mortality Among the Elderly: A 21-Year Retrospective Analysis

Topic Cerebrovascular Disease and Interventional Neurology

Presentation(s) P11 - Poster Session 11 (11:45 AM-12:45 PM)

Poster/Presentation
Number 4-010

Objective To explore trends in TIA-Related Mortality Among the Elderly

Background Transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) are brief neurological dysfunctions caused by temporary cerebral hypoperfusion, with an estimated half a million cases occurring annually in the U.S. They precede strokes in up to 20% of patients. Understanding long-term and projected TIA-related mortality trends is vital for guiding preventive strategies and healthcare planning.

Design/Methods

We conducted a population-based retrospective analysis of mortality data from the CDC WONDER database (1999–2020), focusing on individuals aged 65 years and older with deaths attributed to TIA and related syndromes. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs per 100,000 population) were calculated and analyzed using Joinpoint regression to determine annual percent changes (APC) and average annual percent changes (AAPC). Future mortality trends (2021–2050) were projected using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing (ETS), and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models in R (version 4.4.0), each with 95% prediction intervals.

Results The majority of TIA-related deaths occurred in females and individuals residing in long-term care or nursing facilities. Between 1999 and 2020, AAMRs declined in the early 2000s but rose slightly after 2015, with the highest rates observed in Colorado, Mississippi, North Dakota, and Nebraska. Forecasting analysis showed that TIA-related mortality is expected to remain largely stable through 2050, with ARIMA predicting a consistent trend, ETS indicating a modest decline, and NNAR projecting a mild nonlinear rise within overlapping confidence intervals. The Midwest exhibited the highest historical AAMR, with a continuing upward tendency forecasted for western states.

Conclusions

TIA-related mortality among elderly U.S. populations demonstrates regional and demographic disparities, with women and residents of care facilities disproportionately affected. Projections suggest mortality rates will likely stabilize over the coming decades, reflecting potential improvements in early detection and secondary prevention. Targeted interventions and equitable access to cerebrovascular care remain crucial to sustain and enhance these favorable trends.

Authors/Disclosures
Sara Zakris PRESENTER	Mrs. Zakris has nothing to disclose.
Hanzala A. Farooqi, MBBS	Mr. Farooqi has nothing to disclose.
Muzamil Akhtar, Medical Student	Mr. Akhtar has nothing to disclose.
Rayyan Nabi	Mr. Nabi has nothing to disclose.
Fiza Wali, MBBS	Miss Wali has nothing to disclose.

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