Abstract Details

Title Incidence and Prognostic Factors for Febrile Seizure Recurrence in Children: A Prospective Cohort Study in Vietnam

Topic Child Neurology and Developmental Neurology

Presentation(s) P2 - Poster Session 2 (11:45 AM-12:45 PM)

Poster/Presentation
Number 8-005

Objective We aimed to estimate the incidence and identify prognostic factors for febrile seizure recurrence, and to develop a simple model to stratify risks.

Background Febrile seizures (FS) are common in children, with approximately one-third experiencing recurrence, which often heightens parental anxiety and healthcare use. Accurate risk stratification is important for counseling and follow-up, yet data from resource-limited settings remain scarce.

Design/Methods In this prospective cohort study at Children’s Hospital 2 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam), we enrolled 631 children aged 1 month to 6 years with a first FS (Mar 2023–Mar 2024) and followed them through July 2025. Clinical data were obtained at enrollment and through scheduled visits or structured telephone follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression identified independent predictors, and a simple count-based model was derived. Model performance was assessed using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis with 1,000 bootstrap resamples.

Results During a median follow-up of 1.9 years, 174 children (27.6%) experienced recurrence, corresponding to an incidence of 173 per 1,000 person-years. Fifteen children (2.4%) were lost to follow-up. The median time to recurrence was 6.4 months (IQR: 2.7–12.1). Independent predictors included age <21 months at first FS (HR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.45–2.81), family history of FS (HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.34–2.49), and multiple seizures within the same febrile illness (HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.17–2.21). Two-year recurrence risk increased progressively from 13.8% (no predictors) to 25.8% (one), 36.5% (two), and 63.1% (three). The bootstrap-corrected AUC was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.62–0.72).

Conclusions

Our findings provide contemporary data on the incidence and risk factors of FS recurrence in Vietnam. The simple three-factor model offers a clinically applicable tool to stratify risk, facilitate counseling, and guide follow-up in resource-limited settings. External validation is warranted.

Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT06444126.

Authors/Disclosures
Anh H. Bui, MD PRESENTER	Dr. Bui has nothing to disclose.
Hong K. Tang, MD, PhD	Prof. Tang has nothing to disclose.
Thi Khanh Van Le, MD, PhD	Dr. Le has nothing to disclose.

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